Climate Change Intensifies Deadly Floods in Southern Africa

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Climate Change and La Niña Combine to Trigger Catastrophic Flooding in Southern Africa

A combination of climate change and the cyclical La Niña weather pattern has led to severe flooding across southern Africa, causing widespread devastation. Scientists have identified this as a "perfect storm" that has resulted in significant loss of life, displacement, and economic disruption in several countries.

The flooding, which has persisted for over a month, has claimed more than 100 lives in South Africa, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Eswatini. Hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced, with entire communities affected by the relentless torrential rains. In some regions, the amount of rainfall received in just a few days has exceeded an entire year’s worth.

According to the World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international group of scientists studying the link between climate change and extreme weather, the intensity of such extreme rainfall events has increased by 40% since pre-industrial times. This is attributed to warmer ocean temperatures driven by greenhouse gas emissions, which have created a more moisture-rich atmosphere. The WWA report emphasizes that data clearly shows a trend toward more intense and frequent downpours.

The Role of La Niña in Amplifying the Crisis

The La Niña phenomenon, characterized by temporary cooling of ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, has further exacerbated the situation. While La Niña typically brings wetter conditions to parts of southern Africa, it is now occurring in a climate where the atmosphere holds more moisture due to global warming. This combination has led to even more severe rainfall and flooding.

The World Meteorological Organisation has predicted a weak La Niña cycle this year but warned that rising sea temperatures linked to climate change are increasing the likelihood of both floods and droughts. Izidine Pinto, a senior climate researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and co-author of the WWA report, stated that human-caused climate change is intensifying rainfall events, leading to devastating impacts on vulnerable populations.

Impact on Food Security and Daily Life

In Mozambique, the floods have devastated farmland, with over 180,000 hectares submerged. This has led to severe food shortages and a sharp rise in prices. Marta Josè Bila, head of an emergency shelter in Xai Xai, noted that the cost of basic food items has skyrocketed. A bag of rice, which once cost around 20 euros, now costs 30 euros, while charcoal has nearly doubled in price.

Community kitchens in shelters are working tirelessly to feed displaced families. Melusi Ernesto Cosamanti, who oversees daily meals for over 1,700 people, described the effort as challenging but manageable through collective work. However, many residents face dire conditions, with portions often insufficient to meet the needs of all.

Lora Salvador Mondlane, who has been living in a shelter with her children since losing her home, shared the struggles of her family. “We eat what we can,” she said. “We either have breakfast or dinner. The portions are small, not enough for everyone. But we have no choice.”

Deforestation and Human Impact

Deforestation has been identified as a contributing factor to the worsening flood crisis in Zimbabwe and Mozambique. The loss of vegetation has reduced the land's ability to absorb water, making the impact of heavy rains even more severe.

In South Africa, the flooding has disrupted tourism and caused extensive damage to infrastructure. Kruger National Park, a major tourist attraction, has been closed due to burst rivers. The Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, Willie Aucamp, reported that fifteen tourist camps remain inaccessible, with repairs expected to take years and cost millions of dollars.

Isolation and Human Suffering

Communities in South Africa’s northern regions have been cut off from the world, with bridges and roads washed away. Ali Sablay, head of mission for the NGO Gift of the Givers, highlighted the challenges faced by those trapped in these areas. “Many bridges and roads have been washed away. Communities are completely cut off from the world. They have no electricity. All their food is contaminated, and there is no drinking water.”

As the region grapples with the aftermath of the floods, the long-term effects of climate change continue to shape the future of southern Africa. The need for urgent action to mitigate climate impacts and support affected communities has never been more critical.