Stocks and Commodities Top 2026 Expert Picks

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Key Assets to Watch in 2026

As the year 2026 begins, investors are navigating a complex financial landscape filled with both opportunities and uncertainties. The global economy remains influenced by various factors, including ongoing debates about the potential "bubble" in artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks, rising gold prices, and the continued volatility of the cryptocurrency market. These elements have led many to question whether now is the right time to invest.

Despite these concerns, several experts highlight specific assets that could offer strong returns in the coming year. According to insights from 12 global economic scholars and investment leaders, stocks and commodities like gold and silver are among the top choices. Global equity markets are expected to maintain a favorable trend, driven by high-quality tech stocks that are anticipated to boost productivity.

Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, predicts a 15% rise in global equities by year-end. He suggests that investors with low stock exposure should consider increasing their positions. David Wong, a senior investment strategist at AllianceBernstein, notes that optimism about growth in the U.S. and emerging markets makes stocks likely to deliver the highest returns this year. John Quale, former dean of the University of Miami Business School, emphasizes the benefits of stable corporate funding costs and long-term structural demand.

In addition to stocks, commodities such as gold, silver, platinum, and copper are also gaining attention. Russ Mold, an investment director at AJ Bell, points out that these real assets have been undervalued relative to stocks for nearly two decades. If inflation remains stubborn, investors may turn to these limited-supply assets. Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard economics professor, highlights that central banks globally are reducing dollar dependence, which could benefit gold this year.

Real estate and high-quality bonds were also mentioned as viable options. Rogoff suggests that real estate can act as a buffer if stock markets weaken. Haefele adds that with U.S. rate cuts and slowing inflation, bond yields may decline, offering stable returns through high-quality bonds.

Divided Opinions on the AI Bubble

While there is optimism regarding equity markets, opinions on the AI big-tech rally remain polarized. Some experts argue that AI-related stocks, which surged last year, are already overvalued. Fredrik Eriksson, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy, warns that U.S. AI stocks are overvalued, and a correction is overdue. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, cautions that excessive optimism about AI's rapid adoption has inflated valuations to near-bubble levels.

However, others remain cautious but not bearish. Rogoff acknowledges that while a market correction is possible, the dot-com bubble collapsed only after further gains, suggesting current volatility isn't a sell signal. Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, states that while valuations could lead to sharp declines, the AI rally isn’t over yet. Chris Miller, a professor at Tufts University, dismisses bubble concerns, emphasizing that advanced AI requires vast semiconductor demand, ensuring continued chip purchases by big tech.

Analysts also note that while AI firms’ revenue growth hasn’t matched capital expenditures, this is typical in early tech adoption phases and unlikely to derail the rally. Haefele predicts that AI will expand beyond chatbots to “agent AI” replacing knowledge work and “physical AI” in robotics and autonomous vehicles, driving new demand.

Cryptocurrencies: A Mixed Outlook

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which hit record highs last year under Trump’s support, have since lost 30% of their value. Unlike past halving cycles, which triggered rallies, no clear rebound has emerged. Expert opinions on cryptocurrencies’ role in 2026 portfolios are split.

Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, calls cryptocurrencies the most vulnerable asset, citing their reliance on "legal evasion or illicit uses" and high leverage among investors. John Quale argues that while institutional interest is growing, cryptocurrencies remain a volatile “satellite” asset, not a core holding. Haefele advises allocating only a tiny portion if one believes in long-term potential.

Optimists like Longo, a professor at Rutgers University, note that Bitcoin’s limited supply and potential institutional adoption suggest a long-term uptrend. Rogoff adds that cryptocurrencies may benefit from Trump’s explicit support policies.

Global Financial and Investment Outlook

Most experts identify "instability" and "volatility" as key themes for 2026. Charles Goodhart, emeritus professor at LSE, highlights the importance of the Ukraine peace deal, which could impact energy prices. He warns that the Fed’s independence will be tested, with political pressure potentially forcing low rates. Frankel notes that while Fed rate cuts would boost markets, Trump’s tariffs could reignite inflation. Rogoff adds that Trump’s “negative structural reforms,” like tariffs and eroding rule of law, will have delayed but cumulative negative effects.

Others remain cautiously optimistic. Wong cites three reasons: downward interest rate trends, tentative inflation slowdowns in CPI components, and resilient global corporate earnings. Longo echoes the sentiment that the Fed’s adage, “Don’t fight the Fed,” suggests caution against excessive pessimism during rate cuts. Quale warns that while easing rate volatility may improve capital spending, geopolitical fragmentation and elections could drive short-term swings.

Ideal Asset Allocation Strategies

Haefele recommends a mix of stocks (30–70%), bonds (15–50%), and alternatives (20–40%). He emphasizes that stocks are core for growth—diversify geographically and focus on structural themes. Bonds offer stability, but manage interest rate and credit risks. Alternatives like hedge funds, private equity, and infrastructure can enhance returns.

Eriksson advises focusing on non-tech U.S. stocks and European defense sectors, as European stocks are overvalued. Rogers, holding gold, silver, and U.S. dollars, cautions that this year requires extreme caution—global economic challenges are severe.