Hopeful Visions: Kenyans' Dreams for 2026

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A Nation in Transition: Kenyan Expectations for 2026

As the year 2025 comes to a close, Kenyans are stepping into the new year with a mix of hope, uncertainty, and a deep sense of resilience. Across markets, public transport, workplaces, and digital platforms, conversations reveal a country navigating through economic challenges while still holding onto the belief that better days lie ahead.

The past year has brought significant changes, many of which have affected daily life in profound ways. New policies, including adjustments in the Finance Bill 2025, the mandatory housing levy, and the introduction of the Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF), have led to reduced take-home pay for many. Companies have implemented austerity measures, cutting budgets for non-essential expenses like snacks and tea, and some employees have been forced to choose between accepting pay cuts or losing their jobs altogether.

Families that once managed with modest comforts now find themselves making tough choices, reducing luxuries, and even essentials. Small business owners are feeling the impact, with some experiencing losses where profits once thrived. Despite these challenges, the government maintains that the current economic pain is temporary and that Kenya is on a path toward recovery.

In his State of the Nation Address on November 20, President William Ruto highlighted what he described as "deliberate choices, disciplined execution, and strategic reforms" that have strengthened the economy. He pointed to an increase in foreign reserves, reaching $12 billion — the highest level since independence — as evidence of progress. This, he said, has helped stabilize the shilling against external shocks and restored investor confidence.

Ruto also shared positive projections from international financial institutions, including City Group, JP Morgan, Standard Chartered, and Goldman Sachs, which forecasted a 5 to 5.8 percent economic growth for 2026. He attributed this optimism to improved fundamentals such as lower credit costs, rising exports, stronger household spending driven by low inflation, and a generally stable macroeconomic environment.

The government also noted an upgrade in Kenya’s sovereign credit rating from B- to B by Standard and Poor’s, signaling renewed foreign investor confidence. This could lead to lower borrowing costs for both the government and private sector. The shilling, which has remained around Sh129 to the dollar for over 15 months, is seen as a sign of currency stability.

However, public debt remains a source of concern for many Kenyans, currently standing at about Sh12 trillion. Critics argue that this figure may not reflect the true state of the economy. The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) presented a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026, noting that inflation was at 4.6 percent in September, slightly up from the previous month but within global trends.

Looking ahead, the MPC projected a gradual decline in inflation, supported by stable energy prices and continued exchange rate stability. For economic growth, the committee forecast a stronger 2026, with an expected 5.5 percent growth driven by key service sectors, agriculture, and industrial recovery.

Despite these projections, the committee warned of potential risks, including trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. Many Kenyans echo this caution, arguing that the lived reality does not match the official optimism.

Activist Kebaso Morara believes the positive economic reports do not reflect the experiences of ordinary citizens. He claims that public debt is already beyond Sh14 trillion and that new debt is being hidden from official records. He predicts that the true economic situation will become clearer after the election period, revealing a deeper crisis.

Businesswoman Ngonyo Caroline highlights the struggles of small and medium-sized enterprises, many of which have closed due to the difficult business environment. She notes that newly built markets remain underutilized because traders cannot move goods quickly in an economy where consumer spending has declined.

Boda boda rider Steven Muyeyi recounts how his income has dropped significantly. He explains that many of his former clients now prefer matatus because they can no longer afford motorbike rides. Similarly, service providers report a decline in demand, with customers bargaining more aggressively for services that were previously offered without negotiation.

Families are also adjusting their lifestyles, prioritizing essential expenses and postponing travel and entertainment. The festive season is expected to be subdued, with many households focusing on school fees, rent, and food. Parents who have faced pay cuts or job losses are making difficult decisions to ensure their families' basic needs are met.

Despite the challenges, there is a sense of resilience among Kenyans. Many believe that long-term reforms could eventually lead to positive change, even if the present is difficult. Others hope for better rains, improved agricultural output, and clearer fiscal policies in 2026.

As the country moves into 2026, the test will be whether the optimism projected by national economic indicators can translate into real improvements for households and small businesses. It will also determine whether political stability can lead to economic confidence and whether reforms can deliver meaningful results.

For now, Kenyans remain steadfast, determined to push through despite the challenges. Their voices reflect a nation that is burdened but hopeful, ready to face whatever the new year brings.