How to bet Saturday’s Belmont Stakes

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The 157th Belmont Stakes , set for Saturday at Saratoga Race Course, promises an electrifying finale to the Triple Crown season. This year’s field features a compelling rematch between Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness Stakes champion Journalism , both vying for supremacy in the final leg of the three-race series. Adding intrigue is Baeza, the Derby’s third-place finisher, who enters the race well rested and seemingly poised for a breakthrough performance.

With only eight contenders, two of which are expected to be short-priced entries, you have to be judicious with your wagering dollars. Here are some strategies and factors to consider before heading to the ticket window.

Baeza is peaking at the right time

After that commendable third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby — closing strong from 15th position — Baeza opted to bypass the Preakness, focusing on targeted training for the Belmont. His Brisnet speed figures have steadily improved from 79 to 88 to 98 to 107; he recorded a 102 over a muddy surface at the Derby. Notably, his 107 figure in the April 5 Grade I Santa Anita Derby was a career-best, indicating his capacity to excel while competing at the highest level. Plus, his recent six-furlong workout at Santa Anita, where he clocked in at a solid 1:12.40 , underscores his readiness.

Baeza’s pedigree is also noteworthy. He is a half brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes champion Dornoch, both offspring of his mare, Puca . If Baeza wins, Puca would become the only dam of three Triple Crown race winners , all in consecutive years.

The horse that benefits most from the pace

With two committed front-runners in Rodriguez and Crudo, the Belmont could feature a fast early pace that sets up well for horses with strong finishing ability. But that’s no guarantee. Typically, I like to see three or more front-runners in a field before I anticipate a pace fast enough to advantage those late-running horses. Since Rodriguez has shown his speed against better competition, I prefer him over Crudo.

I would also expect that Baeza, a tactical stalker, would benefit from the anticipated pace. He’s fast enough to stay within striking range and often restrained enough to avoid getting caught in a speed duel.

If the pace is swift, horses such as Journalism and Uncaged may find themselves pressing too close to the pace, potentially dulling their finishing kick. However, I would be very surprised if the pace is so fast that closers such as Sovereignty and Hill Road are able to take command in the late stages.

What if it rains?

AccuWeather says there should be three hours of rain on Saturday at Saratoga, with a 26 percent chance of thunderstorms. If the Belmont is run on an off track, focus on horses with tactical speed and the ability to stay close to the pace, as deep closers may struggle with footing and reduced visibility from kickback.

In such conditions, Baeza, a stalker, could again gain an advantage by positioning just off the leaders, avoiding the worst of the kickback while conserving energy for a strong finish. Similarly, pressers such as Journalism and Uncaged might benefit from being near the front, especially if the early pace is moderate because of subpar track conditions. Closers such as Sovereignty and Hill Road might find it challenging to make up ground late, as the wet surface can sap the energy needed for a powerful closing run.

It’s also worth noting that some horses have demonstrated proficiency on off tracks in past performances, such as Uncaged. He’s won two races on a muddy track, with one of those victories at Saratoga. He is the only horse in the field with a win at this track, rain or shine.

Exactas, trifectas and superfectas to play

Small fields such as this one, with two short-priced horses, are not often lucrative for bettors, so you have to be judicious with your bankroll. Personally, I would limit a majority of my exotic bets to exactas — bets in which you pick the top two finishers in the correct order — looking to cash in on Rodriguez and Baeza to win and come in second. The same idea holds true for the trifectas and superfectas, although those would demand smaller bets.

Here is my strategy. Rodriguez, Baeza, Journalism and Heart of Honor should be fast enough to be competitive, and those are the horses I’ll consider in exactas and trifectas. Specifically, I am looking for the following payouts to make a $2 exacta wager. If you don’t see payouts in the pool that reach these levels, then don’t place the bet(s). Recent experience suggests the exacta pools for using Journalism in the win or place slots will certainly not be high enough to justify the potential return, so they aren’t included in the table.

For the trifecta, here is how I would structure my tickets. (The 3 horse is Rodriguez, the 6 is Baeza, the 7 is Journalism and the 8 is Heart of Honor.)

$1 trifecta using 3 with 6 with 7 and 8 (3/6/7,8) for $2

$1 trifecta using 6 with 3 with 7 and 8 (6/3/7,8) for $2

$1 trifecta using 7 and 8 with 6 with 3 (7,8/6/3) for $2

Our superfecta will use a strategy called the “ double exacta box ,” which aims to back up your exacta with a super that adds the next two most likely horses boxed in the three and four slots. If we hit the exacta, we will have set ourselves up for a potential big payoff.

$1 super 3 and 6 with 3 and 6 with 7 and 8 with 7 and 8 (3,6/3,6/7,8/7,8) for $4