2025 FireKeepers Casino 400: NASCAR at Michigan Odds, Picks & Predictions

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There’s one storyline in NASCAR as old as time – or at least my lifetime: Fast young guns, willing to push the limits of both their equipment and competitors.

It was Jeff Gordon in the ’90s, then Kyle Busch in the 2000s and eventually Brad Keselowski in the 2010s.

After nearly half a decade without one, the debate is officially over. Carson Hocevar is the next to play the part. The 22-year-old Cup Series driver for Spire Motorsports comes off his second runner-up finish of the season, sitting 17th in points, four spots below the playoff cutline. It hasn’t come without rattling the cage of veterans alike, though, including last week when he was involved in a lap-106 incident that ended Ricky Stenhouse Jr.’s day.

To many, it’s the latest case of aggressive driving, dating back to his time in the Truck Series. To me, it’s just a kid not willing to give an inch to a veteran who is known to throw untimely blocks. Past antics play part in why the Michigan native’s runs are judged harsher than others, and undoubtedly so. Him intentionally wrecking Corey Heim in the 2023 NASCAR Truck Series Championship was arguably one of the most egregious moves I’ve ever seen.

However, I’ll back Hocevar today in that Stenhouse Jr. could’ve seen the #77 car had a run on the bottom. I’ll also admit that Hocevar is one of the best things NASCAR has going for it right now. He makes races exciting with bold passes and undeniable speed in mediocre-to-average equipment. Off track, he’s electric while streaming during rain delays and takes to the stands on Friday night if not racing.

Instead of criticizing him, let’s raise a toast to Hocevar for remaining true to himself, both in and out of the car.

He and the 35 other full-time drivers return to his home state this weekend with the hope of parking it in victory lane. Here are my 2025 FireKeepers Casino 400 best bets and full card for a weekend of racing in the Irish Hills.

2025 FireKeepers Casino 400: NASCAR at Michigan Odds, Picks & Predictions

Chase Elliott ( -115 via ESPN BET ) vs. Carson Hocevar | 5u

Despite spending the intro sending praise Hocevar’s way, he’s overvalued in the betting markets to the point where he is now a H2H matchup against Chase Elliott at a pick’em price. Though Hocevar has recent form on his side, Elliott is arguably the most consistent driver in the Cup Series, sitting fifth in points with no DNFs or finishes outside the top 20.

Elliott comes in fourth in the IBT Betting Model projections, compared to Hocevar at 16th. Elliot also had the best average running position at Michigan last year (6.5), the most laps inside the top 15 (92.7%) and the second-most laps led (29). The Georgia native is also tied for third in ifantasyrace.com ‘s Michigan Next-Gen total speed rankings.

That’s compared to Hocevar, who had a 17.3 average running position and only 54.5% of laps inside the top 15, indicating his T10 finish was more of a fluke. Whether I agree or not that he should, Hocevar also has a target on his back with payback from Stenhouse Jr. looming.

The seven-time NASCAR Most Popular driver was 5-1 against Hocevar last year at comparative intermediate tracks and is 5-0 against him at comps again this year, posting better running positions in four of five races. Not only is this one of my favorite bets this week, but arguably of the entire season thus far.

Chris Buescher ( -115 via Caesars ) vs. Bubba Wallace | 2.5u

Another strong discrepancy in projections offered in a H2H matchup is Chris Buescher (fourth) against Bubba Wallace (19th). While both have had speed in the Great Lake State, Buescher has been better, slotting in three spots ahead of the 23XI Racing driver’s eighth-place standing in the Michigan Next-Gen total speed rankings.

The Texas native was also 4-2 against Wallace at comp tracks last season and 4-1 against him this year, posting a better average running position in three of five races. The only time he didn’t beat him to the checkered flag was in Homestead, where Wallace finished third, with Buescher not far behind in sixth.

Considering that Wallace had three straight finishes of 30th or worse before last week’s come-from-behind T10 run at Nashville, I’m backing the 2023 Michigan winner to best him at pick’em odds.

Top 10: Michael McDowell ( +750 via FanDuel ) | .5u

It feels a bit too good to be true getting veteran Michael McDowell’s T10 line at +750 odds when you have to drink juice to get his Spire Motorsports teammate Hocevar to do the same thing.

“McNasty” doesn’t have Michigan stats worth writing home about, but he’s 15th in the projections this week, largely due to his near race-winning run at Texas. The No. 71 car has also had a top 16 average running position at three of five comp tracks so far this season. If we get that type of speed out of McDowell and a few drivers falling out with issues, this longshot is very much live to get to the window.

Other Cup Series Bets on My Card

Chase Elliott Outright ( +1700 via FanDuel ) | .8u

Chris Buescher Outright ( +2400 via FanDuel ) | .5u

DQS Solutions & Staffing 250 (Truck Series) Bets:

Layne Riggs Top 5 (- 120 via DraftKings ) | 2u

Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at Single Sparkle/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media . For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “ The Backroad .”

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